Learning about Learning: A Response to Wand
نویسندگان
چکیده
We welcome the opportunity to respond to Wand’s careful and detailed analysis of our paper (Lewis and Schultz 2003). With the discipline’s increasing inclination to move toward fully structural strategic choice models (e.g., Signorino 1999; Morton 1999), the issues that Wand raises are important to consider, as they bear on crucial questions of model construction and interpretation. Moreover, his work has allowed us to consider more carefully the properties of an estimator that we are in the process of applying to actual data. We should start by noting that we are all in total agreement on the main implication of Wand’s discussion: decisions about the specification of the theoretical model, including the nature and location of stochastic elements, have profound implications for empirical analyses built on such models. It was precisely this realization that motivated our original effort (see particularly Lewis and Schultz 2001). Signorino (1999) had forcefully made the case for capturing the strategic structure in empirical estimators, but his interest was primarily in internalizing the extensive form of the game. His use of quantal response equilibrium (QRE), and the information structure it implied, responded to the need to induce non-degenerate probability distributions over the outcome nodes. For the game discussed in that paper—Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman’s (1992) ‘‘international interaction game’’—this move made sense, since the model, like the QRE used by Signorino, assumed symmetric information. By contrast, we came to this project motivated by the burgeoning literature on the role of asymmetric information in crisis bargaining (e.g., Morrow 1989; Fearon 1995, 1997). Our goal was to build an estimator from a model that captured the informational assumptions highlighted by the existing theoretical literature. To do this, we reasoned, the empirical estimator had to internalize not only the extensive form of the game but also the appropriate information structure. The model and estimator proposed in Lewis and Schultz (2003) were designed to match as closely as possible the simplest models used in the existing literature. We then sought to establish that the informational assumptions mattered—that applying a QRE to same extensive form, without capturing the information structure stressed in the
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تاریخ انتشار 2005